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2026 Men's Ballon d'Or Winner Odds
Bet365 
Sky Bet 
Paddy Power 
The Favourites to Win the 2026 Ballon d'Or
- Lamine Yamal with odds 3/1 on Bet365
- Kylian Mbappe with odds 5/1 on Bet365
- Michael Olise with odds 10/1 on Sky Bet
- Jude Bellingham with odds 10/1 on Bet365
- Erling Haaland with odds 12/1 on Bet365
- Raphinha with odds 12/1 on Sky Bet
- Harry Kane with odds 14/1 on Bet365
- Rodri with odds 16/1 on Bet365
- Vinicius Jr with odds 16/1 on Bet365
- Ousmane Dembele with odds 20/1 on Bet365
Probability to Win the Ballon d'Or
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Lamine Yamal | 3/1 | 25.00% |
 Kylian Mbappe | 5/1 | 16.67% |
 Michael Olise | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Jude Bellingham | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Erling Haaland | 12/1 | 7.69% |
 Raphinha | 12/1 | 7.69% |
 Harry Kane | 14/1 | 6.67% |
 Rodri | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Vinicius Jr | 16/1 | 5.88% |
 Ousmane Dembele | 20/1 | 4.76% |
Who is the Favourite to Win the Ballon d'Or?
As of 2 November 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or is Lamine Yamal, best priced at 3/1 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Lamine Yamal to win is 25.00%.
What is the Ballon d'Or?
Ballon d'Or is an annual football event that celebrates the best player of the year with the Ballon d'Or award, which has been around since the 1950s. Although the likes of FIFA and UEFA also have similar awards, the Ballon d'Or remains the most prestigious and honourable one that a player can receive.
The award is presented by the newspaper France Football and starting from the 2024 edition, the event will also be co-organised by UEFA. Back in the day, the voting process solely involved football journalists but this is no longer the case, as players and managers from the top 100 countries in FIFA's world ranking are eligible to vote.
As for past winners, Lionel Messi is sitting comfortably at the top with eight Ballon d'Or, with the latest one coming in 2023. This after an impressive season with Paris Saint-Germain and Argentina's national team, winning the league with the former and the World Cup with the latter. At the age of 36, one can only applaud the No.10.
From its commendable history to the rigorous voting process - not to mention the aesthetically pleasing award itself - it is clear why the Ballon d'Or is regarded as the best individual award a player can win.
A Look at the 2026 Ballon d’Or Favourites
The Ballon d'Or ceremony takes place in October and the market has a clear favourite to be crowned the Best Men's Footballer. Of course, that is Harry Kane, who had a ridiculous season in the 2025/26 campaign. Let's take a look at the top candidates below.
Harry Kane
The Ballon d'Or has become something different to what it represented in the past now. It's something of a popularity contest, but if Harry Kane were to win it, it'd feel right. Like with Ousmane Dembele last year, he feels deserving to lift the award.
Kane has always been mocked by football for his years without major trophies. Throughout it all, though, he's been perhaps the best goalscorer on the planet. He's played 665 games and scored 445 goals. Last season he scored 73 goals for club and country, for goodness sake!
This would be a crowning moment on a career that has seen far too much disrespect and it's fitting that he's the current favourite. He deserves the award.
Lamine Yamal
This section will be moved around from second to first and back around for the next 15 years (we hope), with the Spaniard looking like football's next best thing. On every occasion of watching Yamal, the winger is beautiful and brilliant.
Barcelona have had to wait for an heir to Lionel Messi, and it is clear now that it is Yamal. At 19 years old, the starlet has already won La Liga three times, gotten to the latter stages of the Champions League on several occasions and he won the World Cup this summer - just two years after he also won the Euros.
He is very much the future of Spanish football and Barcelona, so we will be putting his name here regularly in the years to come, certainly. For Yamal, there will be no qualms if he does not win the trophy here, even if everyone attached with the Blaugrana believes he should win it.
After all, he'll be back next year probably, and the next, and the next...
The Others
We cannot avoid overlooking some of the other names put up for the award. However, the odds make it pretty difficult to overlook the first two.
Kylian Mbappe - With Mbappe, the conversation will always be there. He's a phenomenal footballer and a fantastic goalscorer, bettered by only a few. However, he didn't win enough to be named the best player in the world - with others outperforming him.
A blank year with Real Madrid and France just isn't good enough, unfortunately.
Rodri - Rodri's inclusion here is speculative, with him at 10/1 to win the trophy. However, we'll mention him. Having won the World Cup and being named best player, it's understandable why he's a low-ish price.
However, there are better candidates in our eyes.